A dynamic panel data analysis of the impact of public sector investement on private sector investment growth in Sub-Saharan Africa

Abstract

The present sought to analyze the impact of public sector investment on private sector investment in Sub-Saharan Africa. The study utilized panel data from 2005-2015 across forty-five Sub-Saharan African economies. To estimate the results, the study employed the Two-Step System GMM model as developed by (Arelano & Bover, 1995). In the presence of endogeneity, GMM is one of the robust estimation techniques that produces unbiased, efficient, and consistent estimators. For the validity of the instruments and presence of second-order serial correlation, the study used the Difference-in-Hansen and the Arrellano-Bond specification tests, respectively. The results from the study reflect that public sector investment negatively and significantly impacts private sector investment in Sub-Saharan Africa. Therefore, public sector investment crowds-out private sector investment. To account for the heterogeneous nature of countries in the region, the study conducted a sub-sample analysis by dividing the sample into low-income countries and lower-income and upper-middle income economies. Results from the sub-sample analysis showed that public sector investment bore no significant effect on private sector investment in low-income countries sample. As regards lower-income and upper-middle income economies, public sector investment crowds-out private sector investment. To minimize the crowding-out effects of public sector investment on private sector investment, the study recommends four policy interventions: proliferation and mobilization of domestic resources; inclusive models of public sector investment; strengthening of public sector financial managements systems, and regional integration of public infrastructure development.