A continuous mathematical model for Shigella outbreaks

Abstract

A continuous mathematical model of shigella diarrhea is introduced in this paper. According to the pathogenesis of shigella, the model had been designed as an SIRS system comprising of a non-constant population. The disease-free state and the basic reproduction number (R0) have been computed for this system. In epidemics, there are always two cases: R00> 1 (epidemic existing state). Simulations of the system have been presented for both these cases which show the variations of the population in different situations. Data that has been used for examples and simulations is based on the demographics and disease outbreaks in Botswana.